Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures came back down from the highs on Friday, but still ended the session 3/4 to 1 3/4 cents higher. The Friday gain followed 4 previous days of losses and futures were 3.5% lower wk/wk. NOAA’s 5-day QPF shows limited moisture returning this weekend into early next week. The rain band is expected to bring of 3/4” to 1 3/4” of accumulated rain from Michigan to Oklahoma covering all of IN, IL, and MO. In general, the Midwest forecasts lean cooler and drier than normal for the next two weeks. The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders update this afternoon had managed money at 95,912 contracts net long for corn on 9/22. That was a 37,356 contract increase to their net position wk/wk on 5,102 contracts lower OI. Commercials extended their net short 35,471 contracts to 299,308.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.65 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.73 1/4, up 1 cent,

May 21 Corn closed at $3.78 3/4, up 1 cent,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $3.82 1/2, up 1 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures closed the Friday session 2 1/2 to 5 cents in the black after 4 days of drops. For the week Nov beans were down 3.93%. Soymeal futures closed the session up $1.50 to $3.10/ton, but were still down 0.15% wk/wk. Bean oil futures were 38 to 48 points higher at the closing bell, but that couldn’t overcome the loss from M-Th. BO futures were down 2.39 cents/lb from Friday to Friday. USDA reported a private export sale for 100,000 MT of soymeal to unknown destinations this morning, but no new soybean sales. From the CoT report, soybean spec traders were 211,143 contracts net long. That was up 19,369 contracts from 9/15 to 9/22. In soymeal, spec traders were 21,551 contracts more net long to 65,248 contracts. Managed money funds were net buyers of bean oil on the week ending 9/22, expanding the net long to over 100k contracts.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.02 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.06 1/4, up 3 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.01 1/4, up 4 cents,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $9.99 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal closed at $336.90, up $3.10

Oct 20 Soybean Oil closed at $32.84, up $0.48

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Domestic wheat futures traded lower on Friday. KC HRW futures were down the most closing 7 1/2 to 8 1/4 cents lower. From Friday to Friday, December HRW was down 29 cents. CBT wheat was down by 4 1/2 to 5 3/4 cents at the close. From Friday to Friday, Dec SRW weas down 31 cents. MGE spring wheat futures ended Friday session down 2 3/4 to 5 cents. Dec HRS futures fell 21 1/2 cents for the week. CFTC reported managed money was net long 14,543 contracts for SRW on 9/22. That was a 569 contract reduction to their net position on a 3,193 contract boost to OI. For KC wheat, spec traders increased their net long 8,271 contrcats to 18,463 by way of short covering. Spring wheat spec traders were still net short, the longest lasting net short on record is now 107 consecutive weeks. Great Britain wheat was 98% harvested, with national yields 7.1-7.3 MT/HA.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.44 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.75 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.29 3/4, down 5 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Pre-report positioning left futures down $0.45 to $1.05 on the day. Feeder cattle futures closed the last trading day of the week $1.90 to $2.07 in the red. The 9/24 Feeder Cattle Index from CME was down $0.36 to $142.23. Catch up business for Friday cash sales was light with very wide ranges. USDA reported a few sales from $102-$107 with most $105+. USDA noted the limited $106-$107 was for higher graded cattle. The week’s range was $102-$107 with the bulk at $105. USDA’s CoF report showed 11.394 million head of cattle in the 1,000+ capacity feedlots as of September 1. That was 3.75% higher yr/yr, vs. trade ideas of a 3.4% increase. August saw 1.892 million head of cattle marketed, compared to 1.953 last year and the average trade guess of 1.887. August placements were up 9.18% yr/yr, with 2.057m head. Traders were anticipating a 5.9% increase. The Commitment of Traders report had cattle speculative traders at 57,999 contracts net long. Long liquidation was noted from the managed money funds, as OI dropped 1,269 contracts on the week. Wholesale boxed beef price were mixed this afternoon, widening the spread to $12.36. Choice boxes were quoted up $1.86 cwt. and Select boxes were 76 cents lower. USDA’s estimate for FI cattle slaughter on the week through Saturday is 651k head. That is 1k head above last year for the week, but still down 4.3% YTD.

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $107.575, down $0.450,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $111.400, down $0.875,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $114.600, down $1.050,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.325, down $1.950

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.150, down $2.200

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.825, down $2.075

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Traders responded to the Hogs and Pigs report with a triple digit gain on Friday. For October futures that resulted in a 7.89% gain for the week. The national hog herd was ~315k head above the average trade guess, and still above Sept ’19. The quarterly update from USDA confirmed the lower lightweight inventory, currently the spring contracts are a $1.15 & $5.20 premium to October and summer hogs are $9 premium. The CME Lean Hog Index was $73.70 on 9/23, up another $0.81. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price for Friday was 14 cents stronger @ $64.74. The regional WCB base hog price was $64.75, compared to $64.73 for the ECB. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $0.71 weaker in the afternoon report at $91.32. CFTC reported managed money at 43,580 contracts net long in lean hogs on September 22. That was a 1,108 contract stronger net long on the week. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 2.627 million head through Saturday. That is 14,000 head lower yr/yr for the week, but YTD slaughter outpaces ’19 by 1.2%.

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $71.750, up $2.275,

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $64.425, up $1.150

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $69.475, up $0.975

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures ended the Friday session up 36 to 69 points. For Dec, that ended the week’s move at plus 29 points. Revived hopes for a stimulus bill out of Washington boosted equities and spending ideas. The weekly CoT update had Cotton spec traders 1,483 contracts more net long, at 51,311 as of 9/22. New buying was noted as managed money open interest increased 3,349 contracts wk/wk. WTD cash cotton sales on The Seam were 10,118 bales at a wtd average price of 53.91 cents/lb. Spot sales from USDA’s Weekly Cotton Market Review were 11,437 bales at an average price of 59.82 cents. LW sales were 33,704 bales for 59.84 cents. The Cotlook A index was 25 points lower for Sept 24, at 70.60 c/lb. The AWP for cotton is now 50.45 cents/lb. FSA increased this week’s LDP to 1.55 cents.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 64.66, up 69 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 65.95, up 49 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 66.66, up 41 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 67.35, up 36 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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